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Metaverse, Digital Twins, and Experimentation

This is Part 2.

In Part 1 – Competition, Experimentation, and Progress – I discuss why the positive benefits of technological and societal Progress alone are not enough to encourage people to pursue it, why Competition and Experimentation are both necessary to create Progress, and how to look for areas of potential Progress in the coming years.

In Part 2 – Metaverse, Digital Twins, and Experimentation – I discuss the the potentially transformative power of the metaverse and digital twins, and why societies and companies that successfully harness this technology could see rapid periods of Progress.… Read the rest “Metaverse, Digital Twins, and Experimentation”

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Tidbits #63 – Still Stuck in the Metaverse / Web3

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

Maybe we’re all starting to wind down for the year…there isn’t much going on beyond a very narrow range of items centered around the concept of the Metaverse. Speaking of the Metaverse, there’s clearly a titanic struggle from several different groups for control of what comes next in tech / internet.… Read the rest “Tidbits #63 – Still Stuck in the Metaverse / Web3”

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Tidbits #62 – Playing the Real Game, Metaverse Mania

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

While lining up the articles below for this week’s edition, I am struck by how many different games are being played. People tend to discuss differences in strategy (whether personal, professional, or competitive), but strategy cannot be objectively evaluated without knowing the specific game that is being played.… Read the rest “Tidbits #62 – Playing the Real Game, Metaverse Mania”

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Tidbits #61 – PAX, Booritos, Meta + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

Happy Halloween 🎃🎃🎃

I wish I could carve a pumpkin like these!

Source: Parade

Source: Pinterest

🗺 Geopolitics

#1 Gen. Milley calls Chinese weapon test ‘very concerning’

China recently conducted a “very concerning” test of a hypersonic weapon system as part of its aggressive advance in space and military technologies, the top U.S.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #61 – PAX, Booritos, Meta + More”
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Paper Portfolio – November 2021 Update

As always, this is not investment advice! Please do your own due diligence and take your own financial situation into account. Everyone has a different financial situation, which means different tolerances for risk and ability to take risk. What is appropriate for me may not be appropriate for you.

In the blink of an eye, the year is almost over as we head into the final stretch.… Read the rest “Paper Portfolio – November 2021 Update”

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Competition, Experimentation, and Progress

This is Part 1.

In Part 1 – Competition, Experimentation, and Progress – I discuss why the positive benefits of technological and societal Progress alone are not enough to encourage people to pursue it, why Competition and Experimentation are both necessary to create Progress, and how to look for areas of potential Progress in the coming years.

In Part 2 – Metaverse, Digital Twins, and Experimentation – I discuss the the potentially transformative power of the metaverse and digital twins, and why societies and companies that successfully harness this technology could see rapid periods of Progress.… Read the rest “Competition, Experimentation, and Progress”

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Tidbits #60 – Hypersonic Missiles, Cyberthreats, Trump SPAC’d, M1 Max, + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

This edition is super packed…so I’ll skip the random opening thoughts and dive right in.

🗺 Geopolitics

#1 China conducted two hypersonic weapons tests this summer

The Chinese military conducted two hypersonic weapons tests over the summer, raising US concerns that Beijing is gaining ground in the race to develop a new generation of arms.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #60 – Hypersonic Missiles, Cyberthreats, Trump SPAC’d, M1 Max, + More”
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Canary in the (Supply Chain) Coal Mine

Since the beginning of this year, Capital Flywheels has written about global supply chain issues on several occasions, including the Suez Canal blockage, auto chip shortage, and potential supply chain stress from China’s energy crisis.

In isolation, each of these incidents are more than manageable.

But together, repeated stress will eventually lead to breakage.

The way things break is not always obvious because we live in a non-linear world.… Read the rest “Canary in the (Supply Chain) Coal Mine”

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Tidbits #59 – Space Force, Taxes for the Digital Age, Tether?, Governance + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🗺 Geopolitics

#1 White House plans 30-country meeting on cyber crime and ransomware -official

Top U.S. national security advisers will gather officials from 30 countries this month with plans to combat the growing threat of ransomware and other cyber crime, President Joe Biden said on Friday.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #59 – Space Force, Taxes for the Digital Age, Tether?, Governance + More”
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Tidbits #58 – AI Machine Guns, Collapsing Supply Chains, TikTok + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

How Comedians May Rule the World

Generally, I consider myself to be a fairly (long-term) optimistic person (but near-term realist). I’m generally more optimistic than almost anyone I meet or know.

Even with that starting disposition, the more I think about the sudden shocks from COVID-19, supply chain stress, and dramatic global geopolitical changes unseen in decades, the more I feel the need to tone down my medium-term optimism.… Read the rest “Tidbits #58 – AI Machine Guns, Collapsing Supply Chains, TikTok + More”

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Cloudflare Aiming for the King

You come at the king, you best not miss.

Omar Little, The Wire

So in war, the way is to avoid what is strong, and strike at what is weak.

Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Almost two years ago, Capital Flywheels added Cloudflare to the Paper Portfolio shortly after Cloudflare’s IPO. For a while, the market overlooked Cloudflare and largely assumed Cloudflare to be fairly undifferentiated vs other CDN companies like Fastly and Akamai.… Read the rest “Cloudflare Aiming for the King”

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Paper Portfolio – October 2021 Update

The Paper Portfolio returned -5.68% during September vs -4.66% for the S&P500. This brings YTD returns to 9.90% for the Paper Portfolio vs 15.91% for the S&P500.

September saw a number of extraordinary and unexpected events. While Capital Flywheels anticipated some volatility around the potential announcement of Fed taper (check), Capital Flywheels did not foresee an energy shortage in China that is now feeding investor concerns around further supply chain stress and potential inflationary impact.… Read the rest “Paper Portfolio – October 2021 Update”

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Tidbits #57 – Babel-ing, Crackdowns, Reunifying Media + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

Tower of Babel

Sorting through all the things happening around the world recently has become a challenge in coherence.

Although we all live on one world, increasingly it feels like we live on multiple worlds. Sometimes these worlds touch and intersect, and sometimes they do not.… Read the rest “Tidbits #57 – Babel-ing, Crackdowns, Reunifying Media + More”

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How Shifting Consumer Preferences Could Threaten “Buy Now, Pay Later”

This is part of an on-going series exploring the “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) space.

Part 1 “Buy Now Pay Later” and What Might Be Coming Next discusses why BNPL adoption is likely to surprise to the upside…and why BNPL must ultimately merge with commerce to survive.

Part 2 “Buy Now, Pay Later” and the Coming “Closed Loop” discusses Square’s acquisition of Afterpay…and why BNPL is a credible threat to the current payment network landscape.… Read the rest “How Shifting Consumer Preferences Could Threaten “Buy Now, Pay Later””

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Tidbits #56 – New Frontiers

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

Less “news” in this edition, but a lot of thought-provoking think pieces that outline how society’s tectonic plates are shifting.

People are really thinking outside of the box!

Indeed a time for change. Perhaps COVID-19 has reminded us of how short life is, and there is never a better time to pursue ideas and dreams.… Read the rest “Tidbits #56 – New Frontiers”

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In Pursuit of the Investment Edge Mirage

You probably know that “FANG” have been pretty good investments over the last 10 years.

But “pretty good” would be an understatement.

In reality, “FANG” has been fantastically good.

Leaving aside Netflix (which had truly staggering returns even relative to its highly successful tech peers) and Facebook (which had equally good returns but did not go public until 2012), a modified “FANG” group of Apple, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft not only materially beat the S&P500 but also the Nasdaq / QQQ.… Read the rest “In Pursuit of the Investment Edge Mirage”

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Tidbits #55 – Cryptolending, Dark Content, Shopee, and Exponential Age + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

👻 Cryptocurrencies + NFTs

#1 Bitcoin to Bucks: Crypto Fans Borrow to Buy Homes, Cars—and More Crypto

Crypto enthusiasts such as Mr. Anderson are tapping their holdings to buy homes, cars and, often, more crypto. They are getting these loans from upstart nonbank lenders and automated, blockchain-based platforms.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #55 – Cryptolending, Dark Content, Shopee, and Exponential Age + More”
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Tidbits #54 – CryptoPunks, Quantified Self, India Tech, “I am Groot!” + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

In Search of Power

The world has changed a lot in the last few decades.

The world has changed a lot in the last few centuries.

The world has changed a lot in the last few millennia.

But regardless of how the world changes – how people live, what they want – the thing that never changes is the quest for status and power.… Read the rest “Tidbits #54 – CryptoPunks, Quantified Self, India Tech, “I am Groot!” + More”

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Paper Portfolio – September 2021 Update

The Paper Portfolio performed well during the month of August. The Paper Portfolio returned 6.00% vs the S&P500’s 2.98%.

This brings the Paper Portfolio’s YTD performance up to 16.52%, still slightly lagging the S&P500’s 21.57%.

The capital markets are currently in a tricky place. “Investors” have likely never been more risk-seeking than they are now compared to any other time in the last decade.… Read the rest “Paper Portfolio – September 2021 Update”

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Tidbits #53 – Million Dollar Rocks, Invisible Rocks, Burn Burn Burn🔥🔥🔥! + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🗺 Geopolitics

#1 Intel Lands Pentagon Deal to Support Domestic Chip Making

Intel Corp. INTC 1.43% said it would provide commercial foundry services in the first phase of a broader Defense Department program that aims to build up domestic design and production of cutting-edge chips.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #53 – Million Dollar Rocks, Invisible Rocks, Burn Burn Burn🔥🔥🔥! + More”
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How 3D Printing Threatens Amazon…and What That Can Teach Us About the Power of mRNA

The power of mRNA technology to truly transform society in the coming years can be a bit hard to understand.

We can already see the importance of mRNA tech / vaccines in our daily lives because of how central it is for combating COVID-19, but understanding its potential beyond COVID-19 likely takes a bit of a leap of faith for the average person.… Read the rest “How 3D Printing Threatens Amazon…and What That Can Teach Us About the Power of mRNA”

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Tidbits #52 – Parkour Robots, Common Prosperity, Forgotten Heroes + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🗺 Geopolitics

#1 How Afghanistan’s Ghani Went From President to Villain in Hiding

relates to How Afghanistan’s Ghani Went From President to Villain in Hiding

“I had to move out of Afghanistan to prevent Kabul from bloodshed and destruction,” Ghani said in the video, adding that he left quickly with no belongings after security officials warned him that Taliban fighters wanted to execute them in the same way as former president Mohammad Najibullah, whose body was hanged from a traffic light by Taliban fighters in 1996. 

… Read the rest “Tidbits #52 – Parkour Robots, Common Prosperity, Forgotten Heroes + More”
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Tidbits #51 – Kabul…, The Future of Work, Concerts in the Cloud + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

A Non-Linear World

One of the most important concepts I’ve come to learn about over the years is the non-linearity of the world we live in.

For financial types, you can see this when things compound. If something is growing at a consistent rate, the outcome is non-linear.… Read the rest “Tidbits #51 – Kabul…, The Future of Work, Concerts in the Cloud + More”

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“Buy Now, Pay Later” and the Coming “Closed Loop”

This is part of an on-going series exploring the “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) space.

Part 1 “Buy Now Pay Later” and What Might Be Coming Next discusses why BNPL adoption is likely to surprise to the upside…and why BNPL must ultimately merge with commerce to survive.

This is Part 2.

Part 2 “Buy Now, Pay Later” and the Coming “Closed Loop” discusses Square’s acquisition of Afterpay…and why BNPL is a credible threat to the current payment network landscape.… Read the rest ““Buy Now, Pay Later” and the Coming “Closed Loop””

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Tidbits #50 – Chips, Data, “Spiritual Opium” + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🗺 Geopolitics

#1 U.K. Considers Blocking Nvidia Takeover of Arm Over Security

The U.K. is considering blocking a takeover of Arm Ltd. by Nvidia Corp. due to potential risks to national security, according to people familiar with the discussions.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #50 – Chips, Data, “Spiritual Opium” + More”
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Paper Portfolio – August 2021 Update

The end of July marks the 2 year anniversary of the Paper Portfolio. During the last two years, the Paper Portfolio has returned 150.42% vs the S&P500’s 52.60%.

While the Paper Portfolio has performed well over the last two years, it has occasionally been defined by periods of excess volatility. This includes the first six months after launch in which many of the high quality stocks in the Paper Portfolio were impacted by fear around WeWork collapse.… Read the rest “Paper Portfolio – August 2021 Update”

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Tidbits #49 – China, China, China…Battle for the Metaverse, BTS, Japanese Toilets, and More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

China Policy Direction and Impact on Capital Markets

In recent months, Chinese domestic policy actions have accelerated and seem to embed a sense of urgency.

While the Chinese government and regulators have taken actions in the past (e.g.… Read the rest “Tidbits #49 – China, China, China…Battle for the Metaverse, BTS, Japanese Toilets, and More”

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Tidbits #48 – A New Thing Called Fiat, Netflix Becoming the Metaverse, Softbank’s Comeback + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🤑 Economics + Markets

#1 Ethereum Co-Founder Says Safety Concern Has Him Quitting Crypto

Anthony Di Iorio

“It’s got a risk profile that I am not too enthused about,” said Di Iorio, who declined to disclose his cryptocurrency holdings or net worth.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #48 – A New Thing Called Fiat, Netflix Becoming the Metaverse, Softbank’s Comeback + More”
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Tidbits #47 – Didi Gets Pulled Over, Tech vs Govts, But All We Want to Do is…Shop!

Hello, hello! 👋🏻👋🏻 Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

This is a double issue due to the July 4th holiday last weekend.

🗺 Geopolitics

#1 130 countries sign on to global minimum tax plan, creating momentum for Biden push

The Biden administration claimed an important victory on Thursday in its drive for a global minimum corporate tax with an announcement from Paris that 130 countries had signed on to the plan.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #47 – Didi Gets Pulled Over, Tech vs Govts, But All We Want to Do is…Shop!”
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What Crypto Can Learn From MMT

Over the past decade, crypto has gone on a lot of adventures.

It was originally imagined to be a currency.

But now it’s a lot of things. Sometimes it’s a distributed computing platform. Sometimes it’s digital art. Sometimes it’s just a fun asset to scratch that FOMO YOLO urge. Sometimes it’s just for giggles. Sometimes its for drugs…

While it seems to be gaining some momentum as an asset or computing platform, it’s safe to say crypto has fallen very, very short of being a currency.… Read the rest “What Crypto Can Learn From MMT”