Tag: Economics

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Curve Inversion Magic and the Coming Recession

The US Treasury curve inverted sometime in 2nd half of last year.

A curve inversion happens when the long end of the curve (i.e. long-dated Treasuries) yields less than the front end of the curve.

This is an economic indicator worth paying attention to because the Treasury curve inverted prior to every recession since the 1970s (recessions shown in this following chart as gray bars, which consistently follow periods where the blue line dips below zero, indicating an inversion):

Source: St.… Read the rest “Curve Inversion Magic and the Coming Recession”

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Lessons from SVB / A Reminder of Our “HODL” Economy

Now that we are a few weeks removed from SVB, Signature Bank, Silvergate, and Credit Suisse crises, the overhead storm finally seems to be abating.

Whether the crisis is truly over or not, only time will tell…

What will stay with us will be its lessons and consequences, much like how the lessons of 2008 continue to shadow us.

But if we’re not careful, we may draw the wrong conclusions from this whole ordeal.… Read the rest “Lessons from SVB / A Reminder of Our “HODL” Economy”

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Tidbits #88 – Taiwan Aftermath, Jobs, Tiffany Pendants, Small Nuclear Reactors + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🗺 World Affairs + Geopolitics

#1 – China Tests Taiwan Defense Zone, Cuts Off US Military Talks

China continued its most provocative military drills in decades on Friday and cut off defense talks with the US, as relations between the world’s biggest economies deteriorate in the wake of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #88 – Taiwan Aftermath, Jobs, Tiffany Pendants, Small Nuclear Reactors + More”
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Tidbits #87 – Recession, Crypto Securities?, AlphaFold, Regenerating Limbs + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🗺 World Affairs + Geopolitics

#1 – Pelosi Confirmed Details Of Her Trip To Asia, But Did Not Say If She’ll Visit Taiwan

The speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, confirmed Sunday she will visit four Asian countries this week but made no mention of a possible stop in Taiwan that has fueled tension with Beijing, which claims the island democracy as its own territory.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #87 – Recession, Crypto Securities?, AlphaFold, Regenerating Limbs + More”
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Tidbits #86 – Becoming Restaurants, Coup Planning, TikTok Search, Neural Implants + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

Everything is Becoming a “Restaurant”

Back in 2020, many people noticed that most digital businesses were becoming fintechs. This observation was so common it became a meme:

And for good reason!

Commerce is a central part of all of our lives whether directly or indirectly.… Read the rest “Tidbits #86 – Becoming Restaurants, Coup Planning, TikTok Search, Neural Implants + More”

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Tidbits #85 – Abe, Space Race, Hacks, Dimming Lights + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🗺 World Affairs + Geopolitics

#1 – NATO Pivots To Highlight Chinese ‘Challenges’ For 1st Time

NATO has for the first time singled out China as one of its strategic priorities for the next decade, warning about its growing military ambitions, confrontational rhetoric toward Taiwan and other neighbors, and increasingly close ties to Russia.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #85 – Abe, Space Race, Hacks, Dimming Lights + More”
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Tidbits #84 – Fed and Crypto Dominos

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🛡 Defense and Cybersecurity

#1 U.S., EU Plan Joint Foreign Aid for Cybersecurity to Counter China

The U.S. and the European Union plan to introduce joint funding of secure digital infrastructure in developing countries, according to officials involved in the talks.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #84 – Fed and Crypto Dominos”
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Tidbits #83 – Inflation, Apple WWDC, and Sentient Google AI?

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🤑 Economics + Markets

#1 US Inflation Quickens to 40-Year High, Pressuring Fed and Biden

US inflation accelerated to a fresh 40-year high in May, a sign that price pressures are becoming entrenched in the economy. That will likely push the Federal Reserve to extend an aggressive series of interest-rate hikes and adds to political problems for the White House and Democrats.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #83 – Inflation, Apple WWDC, and Sentient Google AI?”
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Tidbits #82 – Tech Layoffs, Crypto Insider Trading, Stripe Apps + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

A New Emergent Business Model: Platform + App Marketplace

One of the articles in this edition discusses Stripe’s launch of an apps marketplace. This could fundamentally transform the scope of Stripe’s product and the infrastructure they have built.… Read the rest “Tidbits #82 – Tech Layoffs, Crypto Insider Trading, Stripe Apps + More”

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Tidbits #36 – New Business Surge, Changing Date Nights, and a Whole New Reality

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Here’s what I found interesting recently.

🗺 Geopolitics

#1 Microsoft Attack Blamed on China Morphs Into Global Crisis

A sophisticated attack on Microsoft Corp.’s widely used business email software is morphing into a global cybersecurity crisis, as hackers race to infect as many victims as possible before companies can secure their computer systems.

The attack, which Microsoft has said started with a Chinese government-backed hacking group, has so far claimed at least 60,000 known victims globally, according to a former senior U.S.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #36 – New Business Surge, Changing Date Nights, and a Whole New Reality”
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Follow-Up: Gold and Inflation

My last post argued that the media and a great many people are currently misunderstanding the actual mechanisms of “money printing” occurring at the US Fed today.

People know there is “money printing”, but far too many people think it literally means running the HP laser printer, which isn’t true. If this was truly the case, it would be shocking if we don’t see inflation at all.… Read the rest “Follow-Up: Gold and Inflation”