Curve Inversion Magic and the Coming Recession
The US Treasury curve inverted sometime in 2nd half of last year.
A curve inversion happens when the long end of the curve (i.e. long-dated Treasuries) yields less than the front end of the curve.
This is an economic indicator worth paying attention to because the Treasury curve inverted prior to every recession since the 1970s (recessions shown in this following chart as gray bars, which consistently follow periods where the blue line dips below zero, indicating an inversion):

Source: St.… Read the rest “Curve Inversion Magic and the Coming Recession”