Tidbits #23

Here’s what I found interesting recently. 🌎 Our World #1 China’s Chang’e-5 Probe Successfully Lands on the Moon Chang’e-5 is one of the most complicated and challenging missions in Chinese aerospace history, as well as the world’s first moon-sample mission in more than 40 years. Source: Xinhua I changed the usual “Geopolitics” heading to “Our … Continue reading Tidbits #23

Paper Portfolio – December 2020 Update

Entering the month, the Paper Portfolio maintained a defensive posture given election uncertainties. We began to take this defensive posture starting late in the summer, which allowed us to escape the volatility of August, September, and October largely intact. When we chose to further maintain our defensive positioning during the last update, Capital Flywheels argued … Continue reading Paper Portfolio – December 2020 Update

“Buy Now, Pay Later” and What Might Be Coming Next

Recent interest in the “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) space is rising to a fevered pitch. Investors are not only getting giddy over US-based BNPL player Affirm’s IPO filing and its strong growth…but investors have also been captivated by the strong performance of Australia-based BNPL player, Afterpay. Unlike other BNPL players, Afterpay has been public … Continue reading “Buy Now, Pay Later” and What Might Be Coming Next

Tidbits #20 – Finish Line in Sight

Here’s a selection of what I found most interesting recently. I started experimenting with some design changes in recent editions of Tidbits…the design changes don’t come through all that well via WordPress’ default email feature, and I’m not confident I will figure out a better alternative to the default email feature soon. May be better … Continue reading Tidbits #20 – Finish Line in Sight

An Innocent Question Re: Fed Balance Sheet Expansion and Deflation

This is a follow-up to “24/7 Money Printing at the Fed? Misconceptions and Consequences.“ For a longer list of monetary / macro-related notes, please see the most recent related note here. My prior note regarding the nature of “money printing” sparked an interesting debate with a friend, which forms the basis of this current post. … Continue reading An Innocent Question Re: Fed Balance Sheet Expansion and Deflation

Paper Portfolio – November 2020 Update

The Paper Portfolio’s continued defensive positioning during October turned out to be an appropriate move. The Paper Portfolio returned 1.36% vs -2.65% for the S&P500, despite being skewed towards well-owned names. This brings year-to-date returns to 74.38% vs 2.64% for the S&P500. The initial shift into a defensive position at the end of August helped … Continue reading Paper Portfolio – November 2020 Update

Myth and Misconceptions of American Savings and Overconsumption

This piece is part of a series discussing seemingly major misconceptions around economics and monetary and fiscal policies that are commonly believed by the investing public. Understanding these misconceptions may help improve investing outcomes and make better sense of the world we live in. 1/ “In Dollar We Trust (and Why China Would Prefer Otherwise)” … Continue reading Myth and Misconceptions of American Savings and Overconsumption

Tidbits #17

đź’° Economy #1 The Number of New Businesses in America is Booming The government regularly releases figures on new-business formation, derived from applications for tax registrations. And “high-propensity” business applications—those displaying characteristics typically associated with firm-creation and the employment of staff—recently reached their highest quarterly level on record (see chart). … All this has surprised … Continue reading Tidbits #17

Chinese Capital Sustainability and the Power of Capital Controls

A few months ago, Capital Flywheels penned two posts arguing why the popular understanding of the USD and monetary easing were problematic and likely incorrect. In “In Dollar We Trust (and Why China Would Prefer Otherwise)“, I argued that the USD position as a global reserve currency is much stronger compared to reserve currencies of the … Continue reading Chinese Capital Sustainability and the Power of Capital Controls

Tidbits #15

Here’s some of the things I found interesting recently. Some of the articles can be a bit dated but still worth considering in the grand scheme of things. 🎮 Games + Virtual Worlds #1 Next Installment of Call of Duty Black Ops About to Launch While this isn’t my type of game, Call of Duty … Continue reading Tidbits #15

The Coming Economic (R)Evolution

Five months ago during the early stages of the unfolding pandemic, Capital Flywheels published Recession of a Different Kind shortly after the market bottomed after falling 35% from all-time-highs. In the face of significant uncertainty, massive unemployment unseen since the Great Depression, and unparalleled economic collapse within recorded history…Capital Flywheels took a leap of faith … Continue reading The Coming Economic (R)Evolution

Tidbits #14 – The Long and Short of It…May We Find Ourselves in Good Health

Below are some of the items that I found most interesting in the last few days. In comparison to prior editions of Tidbits, there isn’t any major cohesive theme that demands our attention. But companies of interest continue to push their agendas forward that will likely lead to industry shifts down the line. Luckily, that … Continue reading Tidbits #14 – The Long and Short of It…May We Find Ourselves in Good Health

Tidbits #13 – A Summer to Remember…A Summer to Forget?

In times of chaos, Capital Flywheels’ preference is almost always to invest in change, not to invest in incumbency. Chaos will eventually be followed by a return to normalcy, but the protagonists almost always change. This is because the incentives asymmetrically benefit the disruptors. In chaos, incumbents are incentivized to merely survive, while disruptors are … Continue reading Tidbits #13 – A Summer to Remember…A Summer to Forget?

Paper Portfolio – August 2020 Update

Like June, July was a fairly volatile month with investors trying to decide which way to go. The Fed’s continued loose monetary policy supports value reflation trades, but economic growth remains weak with elevated unemployment. Weak economic growth tends to support secular growth stocks (more certainty) and companies with strong balance sheets (more defensive / … Continue reading Paper Portfolio – August 2020 Update