Investing notes. Business, technology, and strategy. In search of long-term business compounders.
Following the challenging month of March, April turned out to be a nice reprieve. Our decision to lean into the March weakness for last month’s Paper Portfolio update also helped support performance. During the month of April, the Paper Portfolio returned 7.44% against the S&P500’s 5.29%. This returns the Paper Portfolio to positive YTD performance, … Continue reading Paper Portfolio – May 2021 Update
What’s amazing about the last 20 years is how many (mostly tech) companies have pursued utterly ambitious visions…bordering on the impossible…and succeeded! Apple with their vision of technology made for humans. Tesla + SpaceX with their visions for saving the world through electrification of cars and reusable rockets (and off-Earth colonies…though this last part is … Continue reading The Future of Identity?
Almost exactly a decade ago, Marc Andreessen famously proclaimed: Software is eating the world. Source: A16Z With hindsight, it’s clear Marc Andreessen was not just right, he was absolutely right. Even before considering the proliferation of software in 2020 in a COVID-driven world, software was already well on its way to dominating most aspects of … Continue reading Gaming is Eating the World and How Gaming Can Can Restore Trust in Society
Hello, hello! Here’s what I found interesting recently. Thanks for reading. 🗺 Geopolitics #1 Peter Thiel- “I do wonder whether at this point Bitcoin should also be thought in part of as a Chinese financial weapon against the U.S.” Peter Thiel: Well, you know, I think there’s sort of a lot of different things that … Continue reading Tidbits #39
This post is part of a series. Part 1 – “The Coming Economic (R)Evolution” discusses the rise of technology and the creation of digital businesses that no longer need labor or capital…and why understanding their impact on the economy is necessary to navigate the shifting investment landscape in the coming decades. Part 2 – “Empire(s) … Continue reading Reshuffling the Geopolitical Deck / How Technology Resets the World
Hello, friends! There’s a lot to talk about. A lot that is interesting. A common theme that I think is becoming increasingly prevalent is the fungibility of technology. Not just software, but all of tech, including biotech, across all industries and aspects of life. What I mean is that technology is increasingly not its own … Continue reading Tidbits #38 – The Pastry AI That Can Detect Cancer
March was a challenging month! The first truly challenging and divergent month for the Paper Portfolio in a while. While I have been anticipating a period of underperformance since at least August of last year given the strength of the Paper Portfolio over the past 12-16 months (I just didn’t know when), the timing did … Continue reading Paper Portfolio – April 2021 Update
It’s been just a little under 3 weeks since Beeple’s 5000 Days sold for a mind-boggling (and highly controversial) sum of $69 million. While NFTs have been around for years, Beeple’s 5000 Days was probably a seminal moment in propelling NFTs to the fore of tech and popular (mainstream?) culture. What’s interesting is that in … Continue reading NFTs, Art, and Tech – Part 2
Hi, friends. 👋🏻👋🏻 I missed the beat last week, but now I’m back. Had some personal issues to attend to as I learned a college friend passed away. Moments like these remind me that life is short. There is never a better time than now (or now + 1) to get started on something that … Continue reading Tidbits #37 – Bottlenecks and Blockages Everywhere
Hello, hello! 👋🏻 Here’s what I found interesting recently. 🗺 Geopolitics #1 Microsoft Attack Blamed on China Morphs Into Global Crisis A sophisticated attack on Microsoft Corp.’s widely used business email software is morphing into a global cybersecurity crisis, as hackers race to infect as many victims as possible before companies can secure their computer systems. … Continue reading Tidbits #36 – New Business Surge, Changing Date Nights, and a Whole New Reality
So…a piece of digital art was just successfully auctioned by the venerable auction house, Christie’s, for $69 million. You may have heard! Christie’s (and Sotheby’s) are serious places. Only serious art – art that has been carefully vetted in terms of provenance and authenticity – gets through those doors. So, that certainly imparts some credibility … Continue reading NFTs, Art, and Tech
I’m sure you already know the market had a crazy week. Maybe it’s tech (and frothy valuations). Maybe it’s interest rates. Maybe it’s ARK Invest? Who knows. What I know is that there are a lot of tech / tech-like things going up like rockets 🚀🚀🚀 that do not and are very unlikely to eventually … Continue reading Tidbits #35 – Semis, NFTs, Media, and More
Hello, friends. 👋🏻👋🏻 Before I dive in, just wanted to remind everyone that I originally started the Paper Portfolio only to be a writing device. I wanted something that would force me to write more frequently. This is not intended to be investment advice. I am not a registered investment advisor. I am not qualified … Continue reading Paper Portfolio – March 2021 Update
Hi, friends. 👋🏻👋🏻 What a week! Not only were markets extremely volatile, many companies and industries continue to undergo fascinating change. Major change is coming in the media space if Snap, Twitter, and Spotify’s recent investor / product presentations were any indication. And beyond that…the boom in NFTs (non-fungible [crypto]tokens) is wild in its own … Continue reading Tidbits #34
Hello, hello. 👋🏻👋🏻 I usually start off each Tidbits with some overarching theme relative to what’s going on in the world in order to make sense of it all or themes that I believe people should spend more time thinking about… But nothing I say can better encapsulate the disruptive (but rejuvenating?) chaos that is … Continue reading Tidbits #33 – “I am not a cat”
At the end of 2019, the total size of the US debt and equity markets stood at $99 trillion (composed of $55 trillion of equities and $44 trillion of treasuries, bonds, money market funds, and mortgages). Given the performance of markets and new IPOs and debt issuances in 2020 and 2021, the current figure is … Continue reading Money Creation and our “HODL” Economy
Hi, friends. 👋🏻👋🏻 Hope you’re all enjoying the long weekend. If you have a significant other, hopefully you were able to do / enjoy something nice together for Valentine’s Day. For all my Asian readers, happy lunar new year! And for all my American readers, happy President’s Day! As always, thanks for sharing a little … Continue reading Tidbits #32 – The World Continues to Spin
🎭 Society In light of the impact that tech is having on society, this article seems like a good place to start the discussion. What’s amazing is that these concerns have been going on for a very long time, and yet we are no closer to knowing the answer on whether our lives are better … Continue reading Tidbits #31
Truth be told – I did not realize January was about to end until the parking lot admin showed up yesterday with my February parking pass. I am usually quite good at keeping track of time…which made the situation all the more surprising. But there is nothing like a continued firehose of news flow to … Continue reading Paper Portfolio – February 2021 Update
Well that GameStop problem didn’t take long to provoke a reaction. I thought it would be a few more days before I have anything interesting to say…but, on the other hand, the GameStop “problem” didn’t even exist a few days ago… So things were and are, definitely, evolving quickly. The financial system responded aggressively this … Continue reading The Band-Aid / Finance’s “Disinformation Moment”
What’s happening in the market is fascinating. While Capital Flywheels had already been concerned about rising excess in the market and warned about potential volatility, the mechanism by which this is all playing out is actually quite different from what I was expecting. In case you have not been paying attention, retail investors (i.e. non-professionals) … Continue reading Changing the Game / What’s Going On in the Market
Hello, hello! 👋🏻 👋🏻 Thanks for reading. A little longer than usual, but I hope you have as much fun reading it as I did writing it. If you can’t get through all of it, please at least check out #20! It’s awesome. I guarantee it. 🗺 Geopolitics #1 Twitter Locks Out Chinese Embassy in … Continue reading Tidbits #30
Given the heaviness of the last edition of Tidbits in which the most consequential development was the storming of the U.S. Capitol by rioters, you may think that edition #29 would be (should be) dull in comparison. But that could not be further from the truth. Because we are starting to see and feel the … Continue reading Tidbits #29 – “All Roads Lead to Rome”
I bylined Tidbits #26 with “Did not expect that” in reference to the year 2020. Well, the start of 2021 is certainly no less surprising. Did not expect that… We are in a weird cauldron of convergence across everything – geopolitics, politics, tech, media…the old way of doing things is out the door. The physical, … Continue reading Tidbits #28 – “Did not expect that” Déjà vu
Three years ago, Capital Flywheels wrote a post titled “Why Amazon is so Hard to Compete Against“. Specifically, I argued that Amazon’s greatest advantage is not the commonly cited ones of scale or cash flow or brilliant management… (those things make it even harder to compete against Amazon)… …but rather Amazon’s greatest advantage is that … Continue reading Competing Against the Past, Competing Against the Future
Pretty quiet few days over the holidays as you would expect…less to talk about. But it should pick up, again, next week. 🗺 Geopolitics The world is changing, and geopolitics is one of the most consequential areas where this is playing out. There is no “navy” on the internet. And all the countries of the … Continue reading Tidbits #27
Happy New Year – May we live in less interesting times in 2021! What a year. Although 2020 could have been a lot better in many ways, especially when it comes to offline social interactions, capital markets were definitely much better than anticipated. Not only did the deepest and sharpest recession in 100 years not … Continue reading Paper Portfolio – January 2021 Update
Hope you had a restful Christmas / holiday season! Here’s what I found interesting recently. 2020 is not the year that anyone expected. But a lot of unexpected things continue to happen. Good thing it’s almost over. 🤑 Economics #1 Why the US Dollar Could Outlast the American Empire But modern trade has gotten more complicated, largely … Continue reading Tidbits #26 – “Did Not Expect That”
Happy holidays, and thanks for reading! 🎄🎁🦌 🗺 Geopolitics Russia has hacked entities across the US, creating a historic mess…it will take time before the US realizes the full scope of the attack and what has been taken. #1 How to Understand the Russia Hack Fallout THIS WEEK NEWS broke that United States government agencies and … Continue reading Tidbits #25 – The World Reminds the US They Exist
Capital Flywheels added Cloudflare to the Paper Portfolio as part of the December 2019 update. Over the past year, Cloudflare has done quite well (~+315%) and ranks as one of the top performers in the Paper Portfolio: A year ago, Capital Flywheels highlighted how Cloudflare was already playing an important role in keeping the internet … Continue reading Cloudflare (+Fastly), Computing, and the Future of the Internet