Author: Capital Flywheels

Finding the future in the present.
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Paper Portfolio – May 2023 Update

As always, this is not investment advice! Please do your own due diligence and take your own financial situation into account. Everyone has a different financial situation, which means different tolerances for risk and ability to take risk. What is appropriate for me may not be appropriate for you.

After a strong 1Q, April brought back volatility that was reminiscent of the volatility that dominated much of 2022.… Read the rest “Paper Portfolio – May 2023 Update”

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Revisiting Google’s Business Model and the Threat of AI

In early 2017, Capital Flywheels discussed how Google’s business model was at risk of AI disruption.

Back then (and even until very recently), most people assumed Google to be the leader in AI. If anything, the mainstream narrative seemed to be the other way around: Google, armed with an insurmountable edge in AI and data, was on the verge of disrupting tech and beyond, including healthcare, autos, and more.… Read the rest “Revisiting Google’s Business Model and the Threat of AI”

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Curve Inversion Magic and the Coming Recession

The US Treasury curve inverted sometime in 2nd half of last year.

A curve inversion happens when the long end of the curve (i.e. long-dated Treasuries) yields less than the front end of the curve.

This is an economic indicator worth paying attention to because the Treasury curve inverted prior to every recession since the 1970s (recessions shown in this following chart as gray bars, which consistently follow periods where the blue line dips below zero, indicating an inversion):

Source: St.… Read the rest “Curve Inversion Magic and the Coming Recession”

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Lessons from SVB / A Reminder of Our “HODL” Economy

Now that we are a few weeks removed from SVB, Signature Bank, Silvergate, and Credit Suisse crises, the overhead storm finally seems to be abating.

Whether the crisis is truly over or not, only time will tell…

What will stay with us will be its lessons and consequences, much like how the lessons of 2008 continue to shadow us.

But if we’re not careful, we may draw the wrong conclusions from this whole ordeal.… Read the rest “Lessons from SVB / A Reminder of Our “HODL” Economy”

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(Silicon Valley) Banks, Berkshire, and the Right Way to Do Leverage

Over the past month, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Signature Bank, Silvergate, and Credit Suisse have shaken the foundations of the global financial system.

Despite significant changes in the regulatory landscape since 2008 and the many talking heads that have promised that financial crises are a thing of the past, the sudden collapse of several major institutions over a few short days certainly makes a loud statement.… Read the rest “(Silicon Valley) Banks, Berkshire, and the Right Way to Do Leverage”

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Paper Portfolio – March 2023 Update

As always, this is not investment advice! Please do your own due diligence and take your own financial situation into account. Everyone has a different financial situation, which means different tolerances for risk and ability to take risk. What is appropriate for me may not be appropriate for you.

For February, the Paper Portfolio returned -1.81% vs -2.51% for the SPY.… Read the rest “Paper Portfolio – March 2023 Update”

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Paper Portfolio – February 2023 Update

As always, this is not investment advice! Please do your own due diligence and take your own financial situation into account. Everyone has a different financial situation, which means different tolerances for risk and ability to take risk. What is appropriate for me may not be appropriate for you.

For January, the Paper Portfolio returned 17.2% vs 6.29% for the SPY.… Read the rest “Paper Portfolio – February 2023 Update”

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Paper Portfolio – January 2023 Update

As always, this is not investment advice! Please do your own due diligence and take your own financial situation into account. Everyone has a different financial situation, which means different tolerances for risk and ability to take risk. What is appropriate for me may not be appropriate for you.

Due to a challenging travel schedule towards the end of November, I did not update the Paper Portfolio last month.… Read the rest “Paper Portfolio – January 2023 Update”

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Paper Portfolio – November 2022 Update

As always, this is not investment advice! Please do your own due diligence and take your own financial situation into account. Everyone has a different financial situation, which means different tolerances for risk and ability to take risk. What is appropriate for me may not be appropriate for you.

October was a relatively stable month for the Paper Portfolio. The Paper Portfolio returned 1.74%.… Read the rest “Paper Portfolio – November 2022 Update”

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Paper Portfolio – October 2022 Update

As always, this is not investment advice! Please do your own due diligence and take your own financial situation into account. Everyone has a different financial situation, which means different tolerances for risk and ability to take risk. What is appropriate for me may not be appropriate for you.

September was another very challenging month for markets and the Paper Portfolio.… Read the rest “Paper Portfolio – October 2022 Update”

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Paper Portfolio – September 2022 Update

As always, this is not investment advice! Please do your own due diligence and take your own financial situation into account. Everyone has a different financial situation, which means different tolerances for risk and ability to take risk. What is appropriate for me may not be appropriate for you.

Between Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan at the beginning of the month and the Fed’s recent (and continued) hawkish commentary towards the end, August felt like an eternity.… Read the rest “Paper Portfolio – September 2022 Update”

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Tidbits #88 – Taiwan Aftermath, Jobs, Tiffany Pendants, Small Nuclear Reactors + More

Hello, hello! 👋🏻👋🏻

Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🗺 World Affairs + Geopolitics

#1 – China Tests Taiwan Defense Zone, Cuts Off US Military Talks

China continued its most provocative military drills in decades on Friday and cut off defense talks with the US, as relations between the world’s biggest economies deteriorate in the wake of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #88 – Taiwan Aftermath, Jobs, Tiffany Pendants, Small Nuclear Reactors + More”
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Tidbits #87 – Recession, Crypto Securities?, AlphaFold, Regenerating Limbs + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🗺 World Affairs + Geopolitics

#1 – Pelosi Confirmed Details Of Her Trip To Asia, But Did Not Say If She’ll Visit Taiwan

The speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, confirmed Sunday she will visit four Asian countries this week but made no mention of a possible stop in Taiwan that has fueled tension with Beijing, which claims the island democracy as its own territory.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #87 – Recession, Crypto Securities?, AlphaFold, Regenerating Limbs + More”
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Tidbits #86 – Becoming Restaurants, Coup Planning, TikTok Search, Neural Implants + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

Everything is Becoming a “Restaurant”

Back in 2020, many people noticed that most digital businesses were becoming fintechs. This observation was so common it became a meme:

And for good reason!

Commerce is a central part of all of our lives whether directly or indirectly.… Read the rest “Tidbits #86 – Becoming Restaurants, Coup Planning, TikTok Search, Neural Implants + More”

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Tidbits #85 – Abe, Space Race, Hacks, Dimming Lights + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🗺 World Affairs + Geopolitics

#1 – NATO Pivots To Highlight Chinese ‘Challenges’ For 1st Time

NATO has for the first time singled out China as one of its strategic priorities for the next decade, warning about its growing military ambitions, confrontational rhetoric toward Taiwan and other neighbors, and increasingly close ties to Russia.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #85 – Abe, Space Race, Hacks, Dimming Lights + More”
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Paper Portfolio – July 2022 Update

As always, this is not investment advice! Please do your own due diligence and take your own financial situation into account. Everyone has a different financial situation, which means different tolerances for risk and ability to take risk. What is appropriate for me may not be appropriate for you.

With another challenging month coming to an end, this brings the current selloff into its 7th month.… Read the rest “Paper Portfolio – July 2022 Update”

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Tidbits #84 – Fed and Crypto Dominos

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🛡 Defense and Cybersecurity

#1 U.S., EU Plan Joint Foreign Aid for Cybersecurity to Counter China

The U.S. and the European Union plan to introduce joint funding of secure digital infrastructure in developing countries, according to officials involved in the talks.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #84 – Fed and Crypto Dominos”
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Tidbits #83 – Inflation, Apple WWDC, and Sentient Google AI?

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🤑 Economics + Markets

#1 US Inflation Quickens to 40-Year High, Pressuring Fed and Biden

US inflation accelerated to a fresh 40-year high in May, a sign that price pressures are becoming entrenched in the economy. That will likely push the Federal Reserve to extend an aggressive series of interest-rate hikes and adds to political problems for the White House and Democrats.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #83 – Inflation, Apple WWDC, and Sentient Google AI?”
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Tidbits #82 – Tech Layoffs, Crypto Insider Trading, Stripe Apps + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

A New Emergent Business Model: Platform + App Marketplace

One of the articles in this edition discusses Stripe’s launch of an apps marketplace. This could fundamentally transform the scope of Stripe’s product and the infrastructure they have built.… Read the rest “Tidbits #82 – Tech Layoffs, Crypto Insider Trading, Stripe Apps + More”

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Paper Portfolio – June 2022 Update

As always, this is not investment advice! Please do your own due diligence and take your own financial situation into account. Everyone has a different financial situation, which means different tolerances for risk and ability to take risk. What is appropriate for me may not be appropriate for you.

After a very challenging April, May came in almost as challenging.

The Paper Portfolio declined 13.6% vs (very frustratingly) a small +0.23% return for the S&P500.… Read the rest “Paper Portfolio – June 2022 Update”

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Tidbits #81 – Terra(ble), Apple Glass, Cloudflare Network Computer, AI Poisons + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🗺 World Affairs + Geopolitics

#1 China Insists Party Elites Shed Overseas Assets, Eyeing Western Sanctions on Russia

China’s Communist Party will block promotions for senior cadres whose spouses or children hold significant assets abroad, people familiar with the matter said, as Beijing seeks to insulate its top officials from the types of sanctions now being directed at Russia.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #81 – Terra(ble), Apple Glass, Cloudflare Network Computer, AI Poisons + More”
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Tidbits #80 – Ponzi Boxes, Amazon’s Trojan Horse, Boeing’s Never Ending Dream, Reversing Aging + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🗺 World Affairs + Geopolitics

#1 Putin’s Gas-for-Rubles Gambit Hits EU Fault Lines as Stakes Rise

After suffering months of punishing sanctions, Vladimir Putin used a powerful tool to impose some economic pain on Europe — and to fracture the unity of his opponents — by shutting off natural gas this week to a pair of NATO members.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #80 – Ponzi Boxes, Amazon’s Trojan Horse, Boeing’s Never Ending Dream, Reversing Aging + More”
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Paper Portfolio – May 2022 Update

As always, this is not investment advice! Please do your own due diligence and take your own financial situation into account. Everyone has a different financial situation, which means different tolerances for risk and ability to take risk. What is appropriate for me may not be appropriate for you.

Since the inception of the Paper Portfolio, April was the single most challenging month.… Read the rest “Paper Portfolio – May 2022 Update”

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Tidbits #79 – Buy With Prime, Netflix Blitzed, Unreal Engine 5, Washing Machines Chips + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🗺 World Affairs + Geopolitics

#1 EU Prepares To Hit Putin With New Sanctions Plan Next Week

Brussels is drawing up plans for a sixth package of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, with measures expected to be presented to European Union countries early next week, according to several diplomats.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #79 – Buy With Prime, Netflix Blitzed, Unreal Engine 5, Washing Machines Chips + More”
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Tidbits #78 – NATO Expansion, Spiritual Leaders, Horizon Worlds, Elon Musk + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🗺 World Affairs + Geopolitics

#1 Finland And Sweden Could Soon Join NATO, Prompted By Russian War In Ukraine

Finland and Sweden could soon join NATO, moves that would likely infuriate Moscow and that officials say would further underscore Russia’s strategic error in invading Ukraine.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #78 – NATO Expansion, Spiritual Leaders, Horizon Worlds, Elon Musk + More”
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Tidbits #77 – Lithium, Zuck Bucks, DALL-E, Ai-Da + More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🗺 World Affairs + Geopolitics

#1 Russia Faces Global Outrage Over Bodies In Ukraine’s Streets

Moscow faced global revulsion and accusations of war crimes Monday after the Russian pullout from the outskirts of Kyiv revealed streets, buildings and yards strewn with corpses of what appeared to be civilians, many of them evidently killed at close range.

… Read the rest “Tidbits #77 – Lithium, Zuck Bucks, DALL-E, Ai-Da + More”
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Tidbits #76 – Nvidia, Apple BNPL, Rug Pulls, and More

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Welcome back to another edition of Tidbits covering all the recent things worth talking about in business, media, and technology.

🗺 World Affairs + Geopolitics

#1 Biden Says Putin Can’t Remain in Power After Ukraine War

U.S. President Joe Biden castigated Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, in a speech in Poland on Saturday, repeatedly calling him a “dictator” and saying that he “cannot remain in power” after the Ukraine invasion. 

… Read the rest “Tidbits #76 – Nvidia, Apple BNPL, Rug Pulls, and More”